A bet on Polymarket, the prediction marketplace, is drawing buzz with its question: Who will President-elect Donald Trump pardon within his first 100 days? Since its launch, this wager has attracted $3,483,995 in volume. On Friday, Dec. 6, Polymarket participants highlighted top contenders, including Ross Ulbricht, the Silk Road founder, and cryptocurrency entrepreneur Roger Ver.
Trump’s Pardons Predicted: Jan. 6 Protestor, Ross Ulbricht, and Roger Ver Lead Polymarket Bets
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Pardon Predictions Soar on Polymarket: Trump’s First 100 Days in the Spotlight
On Polymarket, a lively prediction market, one intriguing bet speculates on who Donald Trump might pardon within his first 100 days back in office, listing 14 specific individuals as possibilities. According to the rules, the market will settle as “Yes” if any of these individuals receive a pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Trump by April 29, 2025, at 11:59 p.m. ET.
The rules further clarify: “If it becomes impossible for Trump to issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market’s timeframe, it may immediately resolve to ‘No.’” The outcome of the wager will hinge on official information from the U.S. government, though the creator notes that a consensus of credible reporting will also be taken into account.
The pardon list features a mix of names, including U.S. Marine Corps veteran Daniel Penny, a January 6 protestor, Diddy, Sam Bankman-Fried, Roger Ver, Hunter Biden, Young Thug, Ross Ulbricht, Steve Bannon, and Edward Snowden, among others. As of Friday, Dec. 6, the January 6 protestor leads with an 89% likelihood, followed by Silk Road creator Ross Ulbricht. At the time of writing, Ulbricht holds a 65% chance according to wagers.
Trailing behind him is cryptocurrency entrepreneur Roger Ver, often dubbed ‘ Bitcoin Jesus,’ with a 55% probability, landing him in third place. Other contenders rounding out the list include Trump pardoning himself for his legal challenges and renowned whistleblower Edward Snowden. Trump had previously pledged during his campaign to commute Ulbricht’s sentence, stirring anticipation among his supporters. Meanwhile, Ver is battling to dismiss tax charges from the U.S. government, adamantly calling the allegations objectively false and unconstitutional.
The #FreeRoger campaign has launched a website and petition demanding Ver’s immediate release and pardon, gathering 590 signatures so far. Snowden’s odds stand at 18%, while Trump granting himself clemency has a 16% chance. Polymarket‘s dynamic prediction market not only reflects participants’ speculations but also highlights the public’s fascination with Trump’s potential clemency decisions.
As the wager evolves, it showcases the interplay between high-profile cases, public sentiment, and the uncertain realm of presidential pardons, offering a snapshot of broader societal and political undercurrents in anticipation of Trump’s actions during his early days back in office.
