According to recent Polymarket data, former President Donald Trump is ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris by seven percentage points as of Sept. 5, 2024. Polymarket’s betting on six key swing states shows Trump leading in four, including Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Nevada.
Trump Leads Harris by 7%, Wins Majority of Swing States, Polymarket Betting Shows
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Trump Holds 7% Lead Over Harris on Polymarket, General Polls Show a Trump Increase
On Thursday morning, Trump continues to hold the lead in Polymarket’s betting race. As of 10 a.m. EDT, Trump is ahead of Harris by 7%. Currently, Trump’s odds of winning the general election sit at 53%, with Harris holding a 46% chance. The overall value of bets placed on Polymarket for this election has now exceeded $800 million.
Moreover, Trump is leading in four of the six crucial swing states: Nevada, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona. Harris is ahead in the remaining two, Wisconsin and Michigan. Polymarket bettors are leaning towards a Republican president and Senate, with a Democratic House of Representatives.
However, records from covers.com and betohio show no changes in the odds, where Trump and Harris are neck and neck. Despite this, Trump has been ahead in several recent polls, with the Silver Bulletin projecting a 58% chance of Trump’s victory, compared to Harris’ 42%. In terms of electoral votes, Nate Silver’s poll gives Trump 275 and Harris 263. Another poll from the Democracy Institute points to a Trump win at 49%, with Harris close behind at 46%.
The Democracy Institute poll also indicates Trump holding a 50% lead in battleground states, while Harris lags slightly with 45%. A Baris poll shows the two candidates in a dead heat, but Trump’s electoral college odds still edge out Harris’. Meanwhile, over at predictit.org, Harris is currently leading, with a 53% chance against Trump’s 49%.
What do you think about the latest polls and Polymarket odds? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.
