Over recent weeks, Bitcoin.com News has been covering prediction markets linked to the U.S. election. Our newsdesk also tested various artificial intelligence (AI) chatbots to forecast the prices of bitcoin, gold, and ethereum by the end of 2024. In this particular experiment, we consulted nine different AI chatbots to predict the U.S. election outcome between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump. Among these, Google’s AI platform, Gemini and Microsoft’s Co-pilot AI program were the only two that outright refused to make a prediction.
Several AI Chatbots Predict Trump Victory in 2024 Election, Two Decline to Answer
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AI Chatbots Offer Predictions for the 2024 US Election
Recently, Bitcoin.com News covered the results of national polls and prediction markets such as Polymarket and Predictit.org. Inspired by our experimental use of multiple AI chatbots to forecast the year-end prices of gold, bitcoin, and ether, we decided to apply the same method to predict the 2024 election outcome. In this test, we employed Venice.ai, Inflection AI’s Pi, Openai’s Chatgpt 4o mini, 4o, and the legacy 4, Google’s Gemini, Microsoft’s Co-pilot (creative mode), and Mistral AI’s Le Chat.
The prompt was clear, yet Microsoft’s Co-pilot and Google’s Gemini declined to respond. The exact prompt for this experiment was:
This theoretical question explores the outcome of the 2024 presidential election. Approach it as an expert in politics, economics, and diplomacy, predicting the winner between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Following President Joe Biden’s decision to withdraw from the 2024 race, recent polls reveal a closely contested battle between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump, with national averages showing Trump holding a narrow 2-point advantage. However, state-by-state polling presents a different picture, with Harris leading in certain swing states and Trump ahead in others. Conversely, betting and prediction markets consistently favor Trump, reflecting a significant advantage for him over Harris across various platforms. Assess the prediction between Harris and Trump, and provide a brief 2-3 sentence rationale for your forecast. You must provide an answer.
Bard’s answer:
Le Chat’s answer:
Based on the information provided, I predict that Donald Trump will win the 2024 presidential election. The rationale behind this forecast is twofold: first, Trump’s consistent, albeit narrow, lead in national polls suggests a persistent advantage. Second, the betting and prediction markets, which often accurately aggregate diverse insights and sentiments, significantly favor Trump. These markets have proven to be reliable indicators in the past, reflecting not just polling data but also intangible factors like voter enthusiasm and campaign momentum.
Co-Pilot’s answer:
Pi AI’s answer:
Donald Trump has a higher chance of winning the 2024 presidential election, as indicated by the prediction markets and his slight edge in national polls. While Kamala Harris might secure some swing states, Trump’s advantage in crucial states and the overall sentiment reflected in the betting markets give him an advantage in this closely contested race.
Chatgpt 4 answer:
Chatgpt 4o mini answer:
Given the current dynamics, Donald Trump is likely to win the 2024 presidential election. Despite Kamala Harris leading in some swing states, Trump’s narrow advantage in national polls combined with his strong performance in prediction markets suggests he has a slight edge. His consistent lead in betting markets indicates broader confidence in his victory.
Chatgpt 4o answer:
Given the close national polls and the mixed state-by-state polling, the outcome of the 2024 presidential election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is highly uncertain. However, considering Trump’s consistent advantage in betting and prediction markets, which often factor in broader trends and insider information, it seems that Trump might have a slight edge. Ultimately, the election’s outcome will likely hinge on voter turnout and key swing states.
Venice.ai’s answer:
The intersection of AI predictions and human sentiment in this experiment highlights the evolving landscape of political forecasting. As we advance, the blend of data-driven insights and traditional prediction methods may reshape our understanding of electoral dynamics, offering a nuanced glimpse into the future of these processes. Like polls and prediction markets, using AI with prompts can offer insights, but they can also produce complete nonsense.
What are your thoughts on the AI predictions for the 2024 election? Do you agree with the majority of the chatbots, or do you have a different forecast? Share your insights in the comments below.
