With just 44 days left until Donald Trump’s inauguration, prediction markets are buzzing with bets about his first actions as the 47th U.S. president. On Polymarket, for instance, participants currently estimate a 91% probability that Trump will implement a large-scale deportation of undocumented immigrants within his initial 100 days in office.
Seismic Changes Ahead? Polymarket and Kalshi Heat Up Over Trump’s Bold Second-Term Plans
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Will Trump Reshape America? Kalshi and Polymarket Bettors Predict Policy Moves
In November, former President Donald Trump decisively defeated incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris in the 2024 election. As the nation gears up for a potential second term under Trump, public opinion remains a lively mix of optimism and concern, shaped by varying demographics and political leanings.
Trump has vowed to roll out a sweeping deportation campaign, enlisting local law enforcement and the National Guard. He plans to reinstate strict border policies from his earlier term, reportedly without seeking congressional input. On the economic front, his agenda includes bold tax changes, such as eliminating taxes on tips, overtime pay, and Social Security benefits.
He’s also proposed allowing tax deductions for car loan interest and scrapping the cap on state and local tax deductions. These ambitious goals have sparked interest on prediction platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, where bettors are speculating on the likelihood of Trump delivering on his promises. On Polymarket, bettors are putting their chips on Trump using an executive order for a mass deportation initiative, assigning it a 91% probability.
Over on Kalshi, the odds are slightly higher, with a 92% chance Trump will pursue the deportation of undocumented immigrants. Meanwhile, Polymarket gives a 42% likelihood of him eliminating taxes on tips. On Kalshi, there’s also a 42% chance Trump will dismantle the Department of Education. In an ambitious twist, some Kalshi participants are betting on another amendment being added to the U.S. Constitution during Trump’s term, though only 10% believe this will actually happen.
Wild predictions are flying about Trump’s first 100 days in office, including a 76% chance on Polymarket that he’ll bring an end to the Gaza conflict. There’s also a 42% shot, according to Polymarket participants, that he’ll make good on his pledge to release the remaining classified files related to the assassination of John F. Kennedy—a promise he recently reiterated during his campaign.
Prediction markets are also buzzing with bets on who will join Trump’s administration. Kalshi users are throwing out a 19% chance of Trump abolishing the Federal Reserve, alongside a 35% chance he’ll face impeachment during his second term. The odds of Trump “imposing large tariffs” in trade wars stand at 61%, while the chances of him slashing corporate taxes sit at 60%. While some of these wagers reflect plausible outcomes, others stray into the realm of fantasy.
If even a fraction of these predictions came true, the face of the American government would undergo a seismic transformation. The predictions swirling around Trump’s potential actions highlight the intrigue and uncertainty surrounding his presidency. Whether bold reforms or outlandish possibilities come to pass, these wagers capture the curiosity and division fueling political discourse. As the stakes rise, only time will reveal which visions align with reality, shaping the legacy of the 47th president’s next chapter.
