Since April 2, 2025, U.S. President Donald Trump has jolted global markets with a series of broad-based tariffs, some of which were temporarily halted this past Wednesday. Prediction markets have become a hotspot for wagers tied to Trump’s trade policies, drawing significant attention from speculators and analysts alike.
Prediction Markets Stir as Trump’s Trade War Strategy Evolves
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From Pause to Pressure: Trump’s Tariff Moves Fuel Speculation on Polymarket and Kalshi
Participants are staking capital on the trajectory of Trump’s global tariff policy. When first unveiled, the plan included a 10% minimum rate worldwide, with steeper penalties for what he referred to as “major offenders.” On April 9, the administration suspended all tariffs above 10% for a 90-day period, with the exception of China—whose rate jumped to 125%, then climbed again to 145% by Friday.
On Polymarket, traders assign a 40% probability that Trump will ease tariffs on China before the end of the month. That contract has attracted $275,437 in volume and is set to resolve on April 30. Another active bet, drawing $91,465 in volume, puts the odds of lifting the blanket 10% tariffs this month at just 8%. Meanwhile, there’s a 19% probability that Trump will raise tariffs on China to 200% by June. That position, with $22,844 in volume, will conclude at the end of this month.
Kalshi also hosts a suite of wagers tracking Trump’s tariff decisions. One titled “When will Trump end his tariffs against China?” offers only a 3% chance of a rollback by May 2025. The odds rise to 18% for June, and hit 28% by December. Kalshi users are also placing bets on the possibility of Trump introducing export tariffs.
That specific contract, touching on export tariffs, currently shows a 15% chance of materializing. Trump’s trade pronouncements continue to command the focus of financial markets, having already driven historic stock sell-offs, wiped out trillions in market capitalization, and stirred concerns about escalating trade conflicts, inflationary pressure, and economic downturns.
