Based on Polymarket odds, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a 2024 independent presidential candidate, has a 81% probability of exiting the race after his running mate, Nicole Shanahan, hinted that their campaign might align with former President Donald Trump. On Tuesday, the odds of Kennedy withdrawing peaked to it’s highest point yet.
Polymarket Odds Suggest 81% Chance of RFK Jr. Exiting 2024 Race as Shanahan Hints at Trump Alliance
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RFK Jr.’s Campaign Faces 81% Dropout Odds
That same day, Nicole Shanahan disclosed in an interview that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is actively contemplating leaving the 2024 election, with the possibility of “joining forces” with Trump, the Republican nominee. However, she also mentioned that Kennedy is still weighing the option of remaining in the race to “establish ourselves” for a potential 2028 bid. Following this news, prediction market bettors pushed Kennedy’s odds of exiting the race to 81%.
On Polymarket, at 2:22 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, the likelihood of Kennedy bowing out stood at 73%. Unlike the Kamala Harris campaign, Kennedy has garnered significant support from the crypto community, thanks to his favorable stance. Over the past year, he has made appearances at two Bitcoin conferences, championing bitcoin and voicing his opposition to central bank digital currencies ( CBDCs).
“There’s two options that we’re looking at and one is staying in, forming that new party, but we run the risk of a Kamala Harris and Walz presidency because we draw votes from Trump, or we draw somehow more votes from Trump,” Kennedy’s running mate Shanahan said during her appearance on the Impact Theory podcast.
As of Aug. 20, Polymarket bettors still have Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Trump neck and neck in the race for the presidency with a 49% chance each. Meanwhile, Kennedy’s odds remain in the negative, with a -1% chance of winning the 2024 general election. By 2:53 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, Kennedy’s odds of leaving the race rose to a significant 81% chance.
What do you think about Kennedy considering dropping out of the election? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.
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