At block height 839,856, the Bitcoin blockchain stands a mere 144 blocks short of the forthcoming reward halving at block height 840,000. Historically, bitcoin’s price has seen substantial increases following prior halving events. However, there are speculations that this occurrence might not follow the previous pattern. This week, the creator of the stock-to-flow (S2F) price model, Plan B, suggested that this halving event would likely follow the historical trend, implying no deviation from past patterns.
Plan B Predicts Repeat Performance Post-Bitcoin Halving Amid Mixed Analyst Forecasts
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As the Halving Approaches, Analysts Predict a Possible New Era of Bitcoin Valuation
The anticipated Bitcoin halving is drawing near, sparking widespread discussions about the potential price impacts in the ensuing months. Since its 2009 inception, Bitcoin has undergone three halving events, each followed by notable price increases. Following the 2012 halving, BTC climbed by 9,500%, and the 2016 halving saw a 3,000% increase in the following year.
The price increase after the 2020 halving was more modest, reaching only 650%. Unlike previous events, BTC has already increased by 110% before this upcoming halving. This has led some to consider the current situation as distinct from previous ones. Voices are suggesting that the halving might trigger a ‘sell the news’ event, potentially causing BTC’s price to “slump.”
Recently, Bitwise, an asset management company, recently advised caution, indicating that data points to the impending Bitcoin halving as a “sell the news” event. The crypto community is actively engaged in discussions, weighing whether this is truly a ‘sell the news’ or ‘sell the rumor’ scenario. Meanwhile, JPMorgan has projected that BTC could reach $42K post-halving, whereas the global asset management firm Alliance Bernstein has posited a contrary outcome.
S2F creator Plan B is confident that the upcoming event will follow historical patterns. “[In my opinion] this Bitcoin halving will NOT be different,” the analyst stressed in an X post on Wednesday. “All bitcoin price increase will again be around the halving. Buying 6 [months] before the halving and selling 18 [months] after the halving (green line) will outperform buy [and] hold. BTC [greater than] $100K in 2024. BTC top [greater than] $300K in 2025.”
In response, Blockstream’s Adam Back commented on Plan B’s analysis. “[I’m] thinking bitcoin [greater than] gold this coming market cycle,” Back stated. Plan B concurred with this perspective. “Agree, bitcoin must take out gold because it will have 2x scarcity/S2F. My ‘ BTC top [greater than] $300K’ is the low end of the $250K-$1M range. Last cycle I took the high end and BTC decided to go low end, let’s see how this will work out,” the analyst further noted.
Plan B’s insights emerge amid a fervent wave of optimistic forecasts in recent months. This week, a survey by finder.com, involving fintech and crypto experts, projected that BTC is likely to hit a high of around $122,000 this year, and then settle at about $109,000 by year-end. Despite this optimism, a critic pointed out past inaccuracies in Plan B’s forecasts. “Oh well, your predictions did not age too well a couple of years ago,” the individual said. “Aged fine for me,” Plan B remarked, undeterred by the comment.
“I made the $55K prediction in March 2019 when BTC was below $4K, so now at $62K, I (and everybody that followed S2F) pocketed a nice 15x,” Plan B asserted.
What do you think about Plan B saying the next halving will be no different than historical halvings? Share your thoughts and opinions about this subject in the comments section below.
