Prediction Markets Never Bought Trump's Dana White Press Secretary Pick

Trump Offers White the Job, Then Says He Was Kidding

“I am pleased to announce that the great Dana White, a violent fighter and warrior, has been offered the job of Press Secretary of the United States,” Trump wrote on Truth Social on Saturday, asking White to bring several UFC fighters as “assistants” to defend against the “Lunatic Left.”

The job has been vacant since Katie Zacharia left in October after five days, and Trump’s post came a day after he replaced chief of staff Susie Wiles with Stephen Miller, following Republican losses in the Nov. 3 midterms.

White posted an apparently AI-generated image of himself at the briefing room podium to his Instagram story, captioned “On to the next chapter,” and said at a boxing news conference in London that he was flying to Washington to meet Trump on Monday. CNN reported on Saturday, citing a source familiar with the matter, that White had declined the offer.

On Sunday evening U.S. Eastern time, Trump said he had been joking about the matter.

“I was only kidding, but Dana loves the idea,” he told reporters in Palm Beach, Florida, according to NBC News. He said Monday’s meeting with White was still on, but “for other reasons.”

Kalshi Traders Priced White Below 20 Cents

Kalshi added Dana White to its next press secretary market at 19:12 UTC on Saturday. Its first, thinly traded minutes ranged from 3 to 58 cents, including 142 contracts at up to 58 cents at about 19:19 UTC, but the price was 18 cents by 19:22 UTC and 7 cents by 19:35 UTC.

For the rest of Saturday, White’s contract traded between 1 and 18 cents, with brief rises to 18 cents at about 20:57 UTC and 16 cents at 21:40 UTC, before sliding back to single digits. On Sunday, it mostly traded at 4 to 6 cents, before dropping to 1 to 2 cents between 23:24 and 23:27 UTC, around the time Trump said he had been joking. About 3.16 million contracts have changed hands, roughly 94% of them at prices under 10 cents.

Kalshi also listed side markets. One, on whether White would publicly decline the job before Nov. 8, settled “No.” A second, with a Nov. 10 deadline, was trading at 32 cents on Monday, while a market on whether White would visit the White House before Nov. 10 stood at 80 cents.

Polymarket Bettors Bet Against White

Polymarket opened a Dana White contract in its next press secretary event at 19:41 UTC on Saturday, and it saw its first trade at 19:44 UTC. Its highest trade was 15 cents, at 20:26 UTC, and it traded near 5 cents on Sunday and around 2 cents on Monday. The contract resolves “Yes” only if the White House announces that White has been picked.

About $70,000 has changed hands in 398 trades on the contract. Seven of its eight largest trades were purchases of “No” shares, betting that White would not get the job, led by a $7,732 buy at almost 99 cents at 01:54 UTC on Monday.

At the time of writing, neither platform has a clear favorite for the job. On Kalshi, Danielle Alvarez and Anna Kelly led at 17 and 16 cents on Monday, while Polymarket had Kelly in front at 13 cents. Insider trading on White House-related markets has drawn regulators’ attention before: a former White House teleprompter operator was ordered to pay $172,539 over Kalshi bets on Trump’s speeches.