Gemini Targets Prediction Markets in Bid to Expand Revenue Streams

Regulatory Application and Strategic Ambitions

The cryptocurrency exchange, Gemini Space Station Inc., is preparing to enter the booming prediction markets sector, according to a report citing anonymous sources. The move would place Gemini in direct competition with a growing list of financial and crypto firms—including a new entrant backed by the Trump family.

According to a Bloomberg report, Gemini has reportedly discussed launching prediction market products “as soon as possible,” though details remain private. In May, the company applied for regulatory approval to establish a designated contract market (DCM), a type of derivatives exchange overseen by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Though the application is still pending, if approved, Gemini would enter a field already dominated by established platforms such as Kalshi, which is registered with the CFTC, and Polymarket, which is working to re-enter the U.S. market. Robinhood has partnered with Kalshi to offer event contracts to retail users. Meanwhile, major exchanges including Intercontinental Exchange and CME Group are also exploring the space.

Adding to the competitive landscape, Trump Media and Technology Group—the media company behind Truth Social—recently announced plans to launch “Truth Predict,” a crypto-backed prediction market in partnership with Crypto.com.

Gemini’s ambitions were outlined in its September IPO filing, which included plans to offer event contracts tied to “economic, financial, political and sports forecasts.” However, the company’s stock has since fallen 40% from its debut price, and its IPO prospectus confirmed it remains a money-losing business with a limited U.S. crypto trading share.

Still, analysts see opportunity. A recent note from Needham described prediction markets as an “attractive” growth area for Gemini. Galaxy Research also reported that prediction markets are seeing record volumes.

FAQ 🧠

• What is Gemini’s plan for prediction markets? Gemini aims to launch crypto-backed prediction market products pending regulatory approval.
• Who regulates prediction markets in the U.S.? The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) oversees designated contract markets like the one Gemini applied for.
• Who are Gemini’s main competitors? Kalshi, Polymarket, and Truth Predict (backed by Trump Media) are key players in the prediction market space.
• Why is Gemini entering this sector now? Analysts say prediction markets are seeing record growth and offer a promising revenue opportunity.