Fidelity Macro Analyst: Bitcoin Might Take a 'Year off' in 2026

Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer: Winter Might Be Upon Us, 2026 Might Be a ‘Year Off’ for Bitcoin

Some analysts are not optimistic about 2026 for bitcoin and the wider crypto market, even with the tailwinds the industry is currently experiencing.

Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, believes that bitcoin might underperform in 2026, a prediction that opposes the vision of crypto bulls such as Fundstrat’s Tom Lee and Strategy’s Michael Saylor.

Addressing the idea of bitcoin as a potential 60-40 portfolio diversifier, Timmer stressed that while he was a superfan of bitcoin, he suspects that the prime cryptocurrency might be taking a “year off” before dominating the scene once again.

Instead, he believes that 2026 might be the year of the commodity, stating that these “are the ultimate diversifier against both stocks and bonds, but their alpha delivery tends to be sporadic.”

He argues that, while some believe that bitcoin has exited the so-called “4-year cycle,” which was dominated by miners’ flows and the reduction of the mining subsidy, this does not seem to be the case.

He explained:

Bitcoin winters have lasted about a year, so my sense is that 2026 could be a “year off” (or “off year”) for Bitcoin. Support is at $65-75k.

According to MacroMicro, the average cost to mine one bitcoin is $100,108. This means that if Timmer’s predictions are accurate, the already complicated situation of bitcoin miners might worsen in 2026.

The price decline might also affect Digital Asset Treasuries (DAT), which could resort to selling their crypto holdings and take a step back from the market, bringing additional sell pressure to the ecosystem.

Read more: Fidelity Says Digital Assets Are Becoming ‘Central’ in Advisor‑Client Conversations

FAQ

• What is Jurrien Timmer’s prediction for Bitcoin in 2026?
  Timmer predicts that Bitcoin may underperform in 2026 and suggests it could take a “year off” before regaining momentum.

• How does Timmer’s view differ from other crypto analysts?
  His outlook contrasts with bullish predictions from figures like Tom Lee and Michael Saylor, who expect Bitcoin to thrive in 2026.

• What economic factors does Timmer believe will dominate in 2026?
  Timmer asserts that commodities could take precedence that year, serving as a diversifier against stocks and bonds.

• What implications could Timmer’s predictions have for Bitcoin miners and the overall market?
  With the average mining cost exceeding $100,108, a price decline could worsen miners’ financial situations and lead to increased selling pressure from Digital Asset Treasuries.