Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode project a constructive outlook for cryptocurrency markets in Q3 2025, driven by improving macroeconomic conditions, advancing U.S. regulation, and accelerating corporate adoption of digital assets.
Coinbase, Glassnode Forecast Crypto Upside in Q3 on Regulatory, Macro Tailwinds
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Fed Cuts, Regulation to Drive Crypto Gains: Coinbase & Glassnode Q3 Outlook
Institutional analysts David Duong, CFA, Head of Research at Coinbase Institutional, and the team at Glassnode assert that key tailwinds are aligning. In a recent report, they cite diminishing recession risks, potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, and a significant US policy shift toward “market-friendly” crypto regulations as primary catalysts.
The report notes “unprecedented” pro- crypto regulatory progress in H1 2025, with landmark stablecoin legislation and comprehensive digital asset frameworks likely imminent. Corporate treasury purchases of bitcoin are highlighted as a major new demand source.
While acknowledging medium-term systemic risks from leveraged buying, Coinbase and Glassnode state these aren’t an immediate concern. Bitcoin dominance reached 64% by June 30, nearing a four-year high, while U.S. spot BTC and ETH ETFs saw massive Q2 net inflows of $14.6 billion—far exceeding Q1’s $627 million. Stablecoin supply also hit a record $230+ billion.
Onchain metrics signal improved investor sentiment. Bitcoin’s Entity-Adjusted NUPL shifted from “Anxiety” to “Belief” in Q2. The percentage of the BTC supply in profit rebounded from below 75% to nearly 100%. Ethereum fundamentals strengthened too, with ETH and layer two ( L2) transactions rising 7% while fees fell 39%.
Partner contributions underscore key themes: Bitwise emphasized that U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs have purchased 225% of all newly mined BTC since January 2024, creating severe supply pressure. Grayscale spotlighted the nascent decentralized artificial intelligence (AI) crypto sector (~$15B market cap), while Parafi noted prediction market platform Polymarket‘s resilient volumes post-2024 U.S. election.
While a pullback is possible, Coinbase and Glassnode believe conditions won’t revert to 2024 lows. Factors that could alter their view include aggressive Fed easing ( bullish) or escalating global trade tensions/geopolitical conflicts ( bearish).
