Citigroup Reduces Bitcoin and Ethereum Forecasts as ETF Inflows Slow in US

Bitcoin Range Trading Likely Near $70K, Citi Analysts Say

The revised outlook, detailed in a March 16 client note by Citigroup Research strategist Alex Saunders, trims expectations while maintaining a view that prices could rise if regulatory clarity and institutional demand improve. The update reflects a more cautious stance compared with late-2025 projections.

Citi now expects bitcoin to reach $112,000 over the next 12 months, down from a prior $143,000 forecast, while ethereum’s target was reduced to $3,175 from $4,304. At the time of the note, bitcoin was trading near $74,000 and ethereum around $2,330, implying potential upside of roughly 51% and 36%, respectively.

The bank attributed the cuts primarily to stalled U.S. legislative progress, which it sees as limiting near-term catalysts for institutional adoption. The proposed Clarity Act, a digital asset market-structure bill passed by the House in 2025, remains held up in the Senate amid disagreements over stablecoin oversight, ethics provisions and anti-money laundering requirements.

Saunders wrote that regulatory catalysts remain critical but added that “the window of opportunity for U.S. legislation this year is narrowing,” pointing to reduced confidence that new rules will arrive in time to drive flows in 2026.

Citi also lowered its expectations for ETF inflows, projecting about $10 billion for bitcoin ETFs and $2.5 billion for ethereum products over the next year. While ETF demand remains the most significant positive driver, the bank said recent inflows have been modest against a backdrop of macroeconomic uncertainty and cautious investor positioning.

Onchain data was another factor, particularly for ethereum, which Citi said remains sensitive to user activity metrics that have recently weakened. Bitcoin, by contrast, is expected to trade within a range in the near term, with $70,000 identified as a key psychological level tied to pre-election pricing dynamics in the United States.

The report outlines three potential scenarios. In its base case, bitcoin reaches $112,000 and ethereum $3,175. A bullish scenario, driven by stronger ETF demand and broader adoption, lifts targets to $165,000 for bitcoin and $4,488 for ethereum. In a bearish scenario tied to a weaker macroeconomic environment, prices could fall to $58,000 and $1,198, respectively.

Despite the downward revisions, Citi did not signal a negative long-term outlook, noting that global regulatory progress and continued ETF development could support future growth. The report suggests that near-term price action may depend heavily on U.S. policy developments, while other regions move ahead with clearer digital asset frameworks.

Market reaction to the note has been limited, with prices holding steady and no immediate action following its release.

FAQ 🔎

• Why did Citi lower its bitcoin and ethereum price targets?
  Citi cited stalled U.S. crypto legislation, reduced ETF inflow expectations and weaker network activity.
• What are Citi’s new bitcoin and ethereum forecasts?
  Citi now projects bitcoin at $112,000 and ethereum at $3,175 over the next 12 months.
• How do ETF inflows impact crypto prices?
  ETF inflows are seen as a key driver of institutional demand and price appreciation in crypto markets.
• What could change Citi’s outlook on crypto?
  Progress in U.S. regulation and stronger ETF demand could improve price forecasts.