Bitwise Targets 2028 Presidential Race With Binary Outcome ETFs

Wall Street’s Election Bet: Bitwise Seeks Approval for Prediction Shares ETFs

Filed on Feb. 17, the Bitwise proposal would create six non-diversified funds under the Predictionshares brand, each tied to a specific binary political outcome—Democratic or Republican control of the White House, Senate, or House. The funds would trade on NYSE Arca and settle based on official election results, including inaugurations and Speaker selections.

Rather than sending investors to crypto-native platforms like Polymarket or Kalshi, the ETFs would gain exposure through swaps referencing event contracts regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Prices would reflect market-implied probabilities: A contract trading at $0.60 signals a 60% perceived chance of victory and converges to either $1 or $0 after the result.

The regulatory backdrop has shifted. In early 2026, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission pulled back earlier efforts to restrict political event contracts, opening the door to broader adoption. Still, the SEC has not approved any such ETF, and state gambling laws, fraud concerns, and post-Chevron court scrutiny add uncertainty.

Bitwise is not alone. Roundhill Investments and Graniteshares have submitted similar filings, signaling what one analyst described as the “ETF-ization of everything.” Prediction markets handled an estimated $63.5 billion in trading volume in 2025, drawing hedge funds and quantitative traders who see crowd-sourced probabilities as sharper than traditional polling.

The catch is obvious: These are binary trades. If the predicted party wins, shares could pay out handsomely. If not, investors could lose nearly all their capital. The prospectus labels them “highly risky,” and critics argue they blur the line between hedging political exposure and straight-up gambling.

Whether the SEC blesses the concept may determine how quickly political wagering moves from crypto wallets to Main Street portfolios—and how comfortable regulators are with turning election night into a ticker symbol.

FAQ ⏰

• What are Bitwise’s Predictionshares ETFs?
  They are proposed funds tied to binary outcomes in the 2026 congressional midterms and the 2028 presidential election.
• How would these election ETFs work?
  They use swaps referencing CFTC-regulated event contracts that pay $1 if a specified outcome occurs and $0 if it does not.
• Are prediction market ETFs risky?
  Yes, they are high-risk, binary investments that can lose nearly all value if the forecasted result is wrong.
• Has the SEC approved these funds?
  No, the SEC has not yet approved any election-based prediction market ETF.