Bitwise CIO: Bitcoin Can Boost Returns Without Raising Portfolio Risk

Bitwise CIO Urges Investors to View Bitcoin Through Total Portfolio Lens

The Bitwise analysis shared by the firm’s CIO Matt Hougan covers January 2017 to December 2024 and evaluates how adding bitcoin to a traditional 60/40 stock-bond portfolio affects performance. Using SPY for stocks, AGG for bonds, and bitcoin (BTC) spot prices, the study found a 5% BTC allocation increased total returns from 107% to 207% over the period, with portfolio volatility rising only marginally from 11.3% to 12.5% standard deviation.

Hougan highlighted that bitcoin’s historically low correlation with traditional assets allows it to diversify portfolios without significantly increasing risk. He compared a standard 60/40 portfolio to variations with 1%, 2.5%, and 5% bitcoin allocations, noting incremental gains in returns outpaced volatility increases.

Hougan stated:

As bitcoin proponents like me love to point out: Because bitcoin has a low correlation to both stocks and bonds, adding it to portfolios has historically boosted returns without significantly increasing risk.

The study proposed alternative strategies, including a “barbelled” approach favoring crypto and cash, and adjustments to reduce risk elsewhere. One model shifted 5% into bitcoin while boosting bonds by 5%, then rotated bonds into short-term Treasury bills. This portfolio outperformed the baseline with comparable or lower risk.

A separate scenario allocating 10% to bitcoin, 40% to stocks, and 50% to bonds generated higher returns than a 5% allocation while maintaining lower volatility than the original 60/40 portfolio. Hougan stressed such strategies require holistic risk management, emphasizing no guarantees for future performance given bitcoin’s historically exceptional returns.

Hougan urged investors to evaluate bitcoin within their overall risk framework rather than in isolation. “Of course, there’s no guarantee this will persist in the future— bitcoin’s early returns were extraordinary, and future returns may not match the returns during this study,” he noted, adding that strategic adjustments could redefine risk-return trade-offs.

“But the data reinforces something important: When you think about adding bitcoin to a portfolio, don’t do it in isolation. Think about it in the context of your entire risk budget. You might be surprised at the results,” Hougan concluded.