Bitcoin Price Watch: Bear Trend Persists Despite Short-Term Bounce

Bitcoin

The daily chart reflects a macro bearish trend that began following a peak at $126,272. bitcoin has since undergone significant downside pressure, forming multiple consecutive red candles accompanied by increasing volume—indicative of market-wide capitulation. The price appears to have stabilized above the $103,500–$106,000 support range, with a minor bullish candle emerging in the latest session.

This short-term recovery coincides with the lower boundary of an established range, signaling potential for a temporary reversal should momentum continue. However, upside targets remain constrained by heavy resistance in the $114,000–$116,000 zone, with even stronger supply expected between $120,000 and $122,000.

On the 4-hour chart, bitcoin‘s structure remains decisively bearish, as evidenced by the formation of lower highs and lower lows. The steep decline from $126,000 was only weakly contested by a bounce that failed to reclaim the $114,000 mark. Since bottoming out at $103,530 with notable volume, bitcoin has entered a range-bound phase, fluctuating between $106,000 and $108,000. A confirmed breakout above $108,500, particularly with strong volume, would suggest short-term upward momentum. Conversely, a breakdown below $103,500 would expose the $100,000 psychological level as the next major area of interest.

The 1-hour bitcoin chart reveals a classic stair-step decline, culminating in a bounce from $103,530 and subsequent lateral movement between $106,000 and $107,000. This phase of consolidation has been characterized by declining volume, often interpreted as accumulation. Immediate resistance lies between $108,000 and $108,500, which acts as the near-term ceiling. A break above this range with accompanying volume could trigger a short-lived upward move toward $110,000–$112,000. However, renewed weakness below $105,500 would likely test the $103,500 level again, especially if volume increases on the breakdown.

Oscillators show mixed signals. The relative strength index ( RSI) sits at 36, reflecting neutral conditions with potential room for upward movement. The Stochastic oscillator at 11 and the commodity channel index (CCI) at -124 both suggest conditions that have historically preceded price rebounds. Meanwhile, the average directional index (ADX) at 27, awesome oscillator at -5,681, and momentum at -16,308 all point to a weakening trend, while the moving average convergence divergence ( MACD) remains negative at -1,881—both signaling persistent bearish pressure.

Moving averages across all key timeframes reflect a dominant downward trend. The exponential moving averages (EMAs) for 10 through 200 periods all stand above current price levels, with the 10-period EMA at $111,599 and the 200-period EMA at $108,066. Likewise, the simple moving averages (SMAs) exhibit a similar configuration, with the 200-period SMA at $107,637, underscoring the prevailing downtrend. These indicators suggest that bitcoin must overcome multiple technical barriers before any sustained bullish outlook can be considered credible.

Bull Verdict:

If bitcoin maintains support above $103,500 and breaks through the $108,500 resistance with meaningful volume, the structure favors a short-term recovery toward $114,000. A sustained move above that level could begin to shift sentiment, suggesting the potential for a trend reversal and renewed momentum toward higher resistance zones.

Bear Verdict:

Unless bitcoin decisively reclaims the $114,000 level and establishes a higher low structure, the prevailing trend remains downward. Continued rejection at key resistance zones, paired with weakening momentum indicators and bearish moving averages, reinforces the likelihood of further downside, with $100,000 emerging as the next critical support.

FAQ

• Where is bitcoin’s current support level?
  Bitcoin is holding short-term support between $103,500 and $106,000.
• What price levels are key for resistance?
  Major resistance zones are located at $108,500, $114,000, and $120,000.
• Is the bitcoin trend bullish or bearish right now?
  The broader trend remains bearish despite short-term neutral signals.
• How much is bitcoin being traded daily?
  Bitcoin’s 24-hour trading volume is approximately $62.96 billion.