As the 2024 U.S. election draws near, the crypto community is abuzz, eagerly watching to see how bitcoin will respond. Many industry insiders are keen to share their perspectives on what might unfold in this dynamic landscape.
Bitcoin Poised for Big Moves: What Experts Predict Ahead of the 2024 US Election
This article was published more than a year ago. Some information may no longer be current.
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Crypto Market Braces for Impact: Trump vs. Harris and Bitcoin’s Next Move
On Nov. 5, 2024, U.S. voters will line up at the polls, choosing between former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris. As of 4:30 p.m. Eastern Time on Nov. 4, Trump holds a 54% likelihood of winning, while Harris trails with 46% odds, according to Kalshi bettors. This week, Bitfinex analysts weighed in on the unfolding election in the firm’s Alpha Report, released Monday.
“The general consensus for markets is that a Republican victory is good for risk assets, and less so if there is a Democrat victory,” Bitfinex analysts explained. “We expect volatility to be high in the first 10 days of November, leading up to and following the election, with the possibility of either a sell-the-news event or a buying climax resulting in a large move up.”
In the latest Alpha Report, Bitfinex market strategists noted that “low front-end volatility” reflects a “cautious” market stance, though a last-minute surge in volatility could indicate rising market activity as the election approaches. If volatility remains subdued, however, it may signal a possible deeper correction for BTC on shorter timeframes, the analysts pointed out. In the options market, a general indifference toward price shifts typically suggests a bearish sentiment.
At the same time, the analysts said altcoins are likely to stay subdued until U.S. election results roll in. The so-called “Trump Trade” seems to be bitcoin-specific, while altcoins—particularly those outside the top 10—are down roughly 45% from their March peaks, sitting at a $200 billion market cap as BTC edges closer to its all-time high.
The Bitfinex analysts added:
We believe that the altcoin market may experience further declines relative to bitcoin in the mid-term, primarily due to the apathy of speculators. This general disinterest among investors suggests that upward momentum in altcoins is unlikely without a significant catalyst.
In a market note sent to Bitcoin.com News, Greg Magadini, the director of derivatives at Amberdata shared his insights. “I expect a +1.5-Sigma ($6k to $8k price range) as a result of the post-election price reaction,” Magadini wrote. “Therefore major price levels are $60k (A Kamala win dip) or a $75k/$77k a Trump win that brings spot right back to the ATHs then THROUGH them, as election enthusiasm breaks the high seen last week.”
The Amberdata executive continued:
Looking at the fixed strike volatility, we can see a larger negative skew with 60k Nov Puts around 102% IV and 80k at 91%.
The anticipation around bitcoin and the election is unmistakable on social media. “It’s election week,” the crypto investor and X account called Jelle told its 93,100 social media followers. “Historically, that means the best part of the bitcoin cycle is about to start.”
Given the historical data and expert analyses, the crypto market’s fate appears closely tethered to the U.S. political climate. The scenarios painted by market strategists suggest a dichotomy in potential outcomes, with a Trump victory possibly propelling bitcoin to new heights, while a Harris win might lead to a temporary retraction in price. This pivotal moment in both political and economic arenas underscores the unique position of cryptocurrencies as not just financial assets but as barometers of broader socio-economic sentiments.
