Arthur Hayes is calling it: China’s yuan devaluation is setting the stage for a tidal wave of capital to rocket into bitcoin and ignite a historic bull run.
Arthur Hayes: Yuan Devaluation Could Ignite Bitcoin Rally as Capital Escapes China
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Arthur Hayes: Chinese Capital Flight May Flood Into Bitcoin as Yuan Slides
Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of crypto derivatives exchange Bitmex and now head of Maelstrom, a family office investment fund targeting early-stage cryptocurrency infrastructure ventures, issued a series of posts on social media platform X on April 7 outlining why China’s monetary policy could reignite bitcoin’s next rally.
As the U.S. dollar/Chinese yuan offshore (USDCNH) spiked to 7.3472—a 1.67% increase from its March 11 close of 7.2268—Hayes pointed to the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) as a potential catalyst:
If not the Fed then the PBOC will give us the yachtzee ingredients.
He suggested that if the U.S. Federal Reserve is not the driving force behind the next crypto surge, then China’s central bank, through a weakening yuan, may play that role instead.
Beijing has signaled a major policy shift by permitting the yuan to slip beyond the psychologically important 7.20-per-dollar level for the first time since September 2023. The PBOC set its daily midpoint rate at 7.2038, the weakest since then, reflecting rising trade tensions with the United States and growing market concerns. This move is widely interpreted as a soft red line, indicating that authorities are now more open to currency depreciation. In response, Hayes wrote: “$CNY deval is on like donkey kong!” linking the policy change to a potential surge in bitcoin demand due to capital flight out of China.
Hayes, known for connecting macroeconomic trends to digital assets, expanded further on the strategic implications of China’s moves: “It ain’t over, until Xi / China bends the knee. I don’t think that will ever happen, but if it does, they will start by arresting the slide of the yuan. USDCNH is approaching 5-year highs. Xi’s major weapon is independent monetary policy which necessitates a weaker yuan.”
He reinforced his thesis with a historical comparison:
CNY deval = narrative that Chinese capital flight will flow into BTC. It worked in 2013, 2015, and can work in 2025.
He ended with a direct warning to market watchers: “Ignore China at your own peril.” With the yuan nearing multi-year lows and bitcoin closely tracking global liquidity shifts, Hayes’ remarks underline the potential for Asia-driven momentum in digital asset markets.
The U.S. and China have sharply escalated trade tensions, with Washington enforcing a 104% tariff on Chinese imports starting April 9. This dramatic move, driven by President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff strategy, follows China’s refusal to remove its retaliatory duties.
