Bitcoin could climb toward $3.4 million by 2028 as fiscal expansion, liquidity growth, and investor demand converge, a scenario Arthur Hayes discusses through his policy-driven framework.
Arthur Hayes Analyzes Bitcoin Model Pointing to $3.4M by 2028
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Arthur Hayes Explores $3.4M Bitcoin Outcome Based on Policy-Driven Model
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of crypto exchange Bitmex and chief investment officer at Maelstrom Fund, shared on Sept. 22 that U.S. monetary policy under a Trump administration could set the stage for a historic rally in bitcoin. In his analysis, Hayes suggested that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent may pursue policies resembling yield curve control (YCC), a framework last deployed during World War II to cap borrowing costs. The Bitmex co-founder reasoned that the combination of fiscal pressure and political maneuvering could result in large-scale credit creation.
Hayes linked this liquidity wave directly to bitcoin’s trajectory: “The slope of the percentage increase in bitcoin to a dollar of credit growth was ~0.19.” He continued:
Ladies and gentlemen, that results in a 2028 bitcoin price prediction of $3.4 million!
“Do I think bitcoin will rise to $3.4 million by 2028? No, but I believe the number will be markedly higher than the ~$115,000 that it trades at today,” he clarified. “My goal is to get the direction of travel correct and be confident that I’m betting on the fastest horse, assuming that Trump is serious about printing trillions of dollars to achieve his policy goals. This model does just that.”
Hayes stressed that the direction of policy, rather than precise numbers, is what matters for positioning.
The analysis highlights a potential divergence in asset classes: while fiat currencies and government bonds could see pressure under sustained money printing, BTC and gold may emerge as primary beneficiaries. Hayes framed bitcoin as uniquely positioned to capture outsized gains, noting its sensitivity to credit expansion and investor appetite for non-sovereign stores of value. His projection underscores how political maneuvers at the Federal Reserve could ripple through global markets, reinforcing BTC’s role as a hedge in an era of fiscal dominance.
