Analyst Raises Crypto ETF Odds to 100% With SEC’s Radical Listing Reset

Crypto ETF Approvals Loom as SEC Reshapes Regulatory Path

Regulatory changes are fueling optimism that many crypto ETFs are on the verge of approval, with some analysts now declaring the probability at 100%. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) adoption of generic listing standards has removed the requirement for 19b-4 filings, leaving only S-1 forms for review. This structural shift is being viewed as a bullish milestone that could accelerate institutional entry and mainstream investor access to digital assets through regulated markets.

Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated on Sept. 30 on social media platform X that the odds of the SEC approving crypto ETFs tied to cryptocurrencies other than bitcoin and ether have reached 100%. He shared:

Honestly the odds are really 100% now. Generic listing standards make the 19b-4s and their ‘clock’ meaningless. That just leaves the S-1s waiting for formal green light from Corp Finance.

He followed this up with another post on the same day, underscoring the significance of the development: “ Crypto ETF approval season has officially arrived!” His commentary coincided with an SEC investor alert that warned of fraudsters impersonating officials to solicit scams.

Prior to the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs, the SEC’s X account was hacked on Jan. 9, 2024. A false post announced ETF approval, briefly driving up BTC’s price before the SEC removed the misinformation. The ETFs were officially approved the following day. The breach raised significant cybersecurity concerns for the agency.

The securities watchdog reportedly asked issuers of solana, XRP, cardano, litecoin, and dogecoin ETFs to withdraw their 19b-4 filings, as these are no longer required under the new framework. Balchunas acknowledged the move, stating:

This was something we thought could happen. It makes sense as you don’t need 19b-4s in the post-GLS world. Just not sure how the launch schedule will work yet. More will be revealed soon.

Supporters maintain that regulated ETFs would bolster liquidity, increase institutional confidence, and provide retail investors with safer exposure to crypto markets. Advocates argue this shift could mark a turning point, bringing the industry closer to broad-based legitimacy and growth.