The pseudonymous creator of the popular stock-to-flow (S2F) bitcoin price model, Plan B, has published his “worst case scenario for 2021” predictions on social media on Sunday. The analyst says there’s also a “more fundamental reason” to why bitcoin prices have been dropping in June and how the month of July may see “weakness” as well.
Best Case Scenario: $450K Worst Case Scenario: $135K
Five months ago, bitcoin (BTC) prices went parabolic and the value of the leading crypto asset seemingly was following the well known stock-to-flow (S2F) model. At the time, the S2F creator said: “bitcoin stock-to-flow model [is] on track… like clockwork.” The price of bitcoin skyrocketed over $64K per unit but has since lost more than half that value.
At the end of April, Plan B remarked that the downturn was a “mid-way dip” and stressed that “nothing goes up in a straight line.” This past Saturday, Plan B further discussed the infamous death cross pattern in the BTC/USD chart and remained optimistic.
Then on Sunday, Plan B gave an update on his “worst case scenario for 2021.”
“Bitcoin is below $34K, triggered by Elon Musk’s energy FUD and China’s mining crack down,” Plan B tweeted. “There is also a more fundamental reason that we see weakness in June, and possibly July. My worst case scenario for 2021 (price/on-chain based): Aug>47K, Sep>43K, Oct>63K, Nov>98K, Dec>135K,” the analyst added.
Of course, Plan B made sure that people read his tweet carefully when people asked if they should disregard his model. “Please read my tweet more carefully,” Plan B replied. “I said this is a worst case scenario, not a base case, let alone best case. I am still on S2FX track for my base case. I have explained my personal (non)selling strategy in several interviews,” he added. Furthermore, someone asked Plan B: “What’s the more fundamental reason?”
“Great question. I [intend] to publish later this year,” the analyst replied. Additionally, the popular bitcoiner dubbed “Parabolic Trav” said that he likes a bearish Plan B tweet and said “Bullish.” Plan B also responded to Parabolic Trav’s statement and said:
Wait until you [see] my base case and best case scenarios! OK, a hint: best case Dec $450K.
Plan B: ‘Bitcoin Distribution Looks a Lot Healthier Now’
Plan B is a popular analyst and has more than 570,000 Twitter followers. The stock-to-flow price model has also grown in popularity during the last 12 months and it is referenced often in technical analysis. Plan B has been getting a lot more criticism in recent times since bitcoin’s price has been dropping lower. The sell-off, Plan B said this weekend, has led to better bitcoin distribution.
“60% of bitcoins sold in May-June were bought in March-April and sold at a loss,” Plan B wrote. “40% was bought earlier and sold at a profit. Of total 18.7M bitcoins ~2,5M bitcoins are bought at [below] $10 price level, ~2M BTC at $10-$1K,~2M at $1K-$5K etc. BTC distribution looks a lot healthier now,” the analyst added.
What do you think about Plan B’s worst case scenarios for 2021? Let us know what you think about this subject in the comments section below.
Image Credits: Shutterstock, Pixabay, Wiki Commons, Plan B, Twitter, Mike McGlone, Bloomberg,
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