Do Not Make Bitcoin Price Predictions Lest You Eat Your Words

There has been a lot of fear, doubt, and panic sweeping through the cryptocurrency world the last few days. Many people made doom and gloom bitcoin price predictions, especially this last Sunday when the price went into a bomb-propelled plunge. People and media sources said this could herald the end of bitcoin or suggest the “bubble” had popped. However, just a few days later, the price started to skyrocket again, vexing naysayers and overturning shortsighted predictions. Looks like they ate their words.

Also read: Global Police Operation Undermines Darknet Markets

Bloody Sunday Price Analysis

For perspective, lets analyze recent price movement in greater detail. Prior to last weekend, the price was hovering healthily in the upper $2,000 range and flirting with a $3,000 peak. As the weekend rolled around, the price began to plummet. This occurred in lockstep with fearful signals that the bitcoin community would not be able to reach consensus on the scaling debate. So during the wee hours of Sunday, the price dropped roughly 10% to a devastating $1851.49, a record low in recent weeks.

Do Not Make Bitcoin Price Predictions Lest You Eat Your WordsCatastrophic Media Headlines and Price Predictions

During the price downturn, media sources exacerbated fear by writing clickbait headlines to scare people into a panicked frenzy. CBS news wrote on July 14, “Did a Bitcoin Bubble just Burst”? On July 17 Fortune wrote “Wipeout: Bitcoin and Other Digital Currencies in Price Collapse.”

Along with a slew of provocative — yet preemptive — media posts about bitcoin’s imminent collapse or demise…individual users on Facebook and elsewhere spoke of selling their coin and panicking. They embraced the panic and met it with equal parts fear and uncertainty. Here are a few quotes from my personal Facebook feed:

Wow! Bitcoin is crashing. I lost $100 before I saw it is tanking and transferred it to my PayPal. I left it in thinking oh yes it’ll gain money! Nope  If you have Bitcoin be careful-you might want to watch how it’s dropping and you might want to pull your funds from it!

One user even misinterpreted bitcoin as fiat currency during the price movement: “bitcoin is crashing, lol. fiat currency is no good, even digital ones. gold is the standard.”

There were many other posts about bitcoin collapsing or dying, but as everyone witnessed, the price made a significant turn and started an upward trend. As of writing this, Bitcoin just surpassed the $2,750 mark with a high of around $2,900. It looks like the ecosystem could be making a recovery.

Do Not Make Predictions, Lest You Eat Your Words

As a result of this staggering change in price, I urge people not to listen to FUD predictions, unless they know factually that something has broken bitcoin or harmed its infrastructure. If they do make these FUD predictions, and the opposite comes true, they may have the unsavory task of eating their words.

Do Not Make Bitcoin Price Predictions Lest You Eat Your Words

Here is why: people cannot accurately predict markets anymore than they can accurately predict the path of a tornado. Cryptocurrency markets are notoriously more difficult to guess at than other markets as well, because the constant fluctuation of price points and random behavior of market actors can cause the price to shift on a dime.

To wit, I am not making a prediction myself. I am not saying without doubt bitcoin will win or end up at $500,000 mark, like John McAfee predicted. I have utmost faith in bitcoin and its diligent community, even regarding technical and political challenges; however, I know enough about markets to realize they are basically unpredictable. Not even astute technical analysis leveraging Fibonacci retracement can always provide accurate analysis for investors.

Self-Fulfilling Prophecies and FUD-Based Panic Selling

I admit, I made predictions in the past. Some came true and some did not. I realized Do Not Make Bitcoin Price Predictions Lest You Eat Your Wordsapplying arbitrary, subjective guesswork to crypto markets is likely doomed to failure. I usually just end up wrong or dumbstruck. Worst case scenario is a FUD prediction could precipitate a temporary panic sell. In psychology, this panic sell would result in a domino effect predicated on a self-fulfilling prophecy.

A self-fulfilling prophecy is a prediction that directly or indirectly causes itself to become true due to positive feedback between belief and behavior. On the market, a catastrophic prediction by various organizations or individuals could elicit a panic sell that results in the expected belief of the actors.

This is probably what happened on bloody Sunday as media sources yipped and howled about bitcoin crashing. It didn’t of course, but bitcoin could eventually undergo serious problems. The digital currency is not guaranteed to win, but predictions are oftentimes wrong. They do not really do justice to all market variables. Try to withhold making predictions unless there are solid facts to support them. Otherwise, loose predictions could provide false market signals and exacerbate panics. Do not be part of that. Do not have to eat your words.

Do you believe making cryptocurrency predictions is a good thing? Are they ever accurate? Let us know in the comments below.

Images via Shutterstock

Whether you’re a beginner or a long-time bitcoin player, there’s always something interesting going on in the Forums. We are proud free speech advocates, and no matter what your opinion on bitcoin we guarantee it’ll be seen and heard here. 

  • You observe and analyze the ‘media sources’ without acknowledging that you’re one too, as biased. Do not believe their pump and dump, believe ours. Added to the pile of other recommendations on what to think.

    • Sterlin Lujan

      We are a media source, but we are not anti-bitcoin media source, obviously. 🙂

  • Dr. Bubó

    Bitcoin is not issued by a government, but in every other regards yes, it is a fiat money.

    • David Arulnathan

      bubo…buy gold …it shall double every 6 months!!

      • Dr. Bubó

        bitcoin’s price move fast, it does not mean it is not fiat, thanx

        • antisheeple

          Bubo you don’t understand what fiat currency is apparently.

        • antisheeple

          Fiat is currency created by a government that can be printed at will, and is not backed by anything except possibly men with guns (like the US dollar). BTC is backed by proof of work that requires electricity, a true asset and no government can control it or print it at will.

          • Dr. Bubó

            Printing USD also requires work and electricity. Does it mean it has intrinistic value? NO. Same as BTC.
            The only difference is BTC not issued by a government. That was my first comment and you shouldnt answer if you did not read it.
            No one can print BTC, it makes it good as store of value but bad money, as money needs to be infaltory. Specially in a debt-fuelled economy. Deflation the WORST thing what can happen, much worse than hyperinflation. I bet you dont understand why is that.

          • Frutiv Academy

            Well if you have a debt mentality, then bitcoin is bad, the current banking system has actually normalize debt in our brains, thats why the average american carries his credit cards with pride, just wait until bitcoin proves itself as good money, its just amazing how inflation is now better than inflation, we live in a sick world

          • Dr. Bubó

            It is true, but is is also true that deflation always was a problem in the worlds economy when existed. The problem of deflation/inflation is a bit deeper than your understanding.

          • Frutiv Academy

            Well have you thought about it that this is a market 100percent market forces determined, it will always self correct, when the value goes beyond what our economy can account for, it will crash and then stabilize, you think you know something while you know nothing other than what the current corrupt system has fed you, let it get into your head that this is a market free of central manipulation

          • Dr. Bubó

            Before you judge me, you should REALLY understand deflation.

          • Frutiv Academy

            Well, maybe you arnt getting my point, i know too much deflation is an economic problem, but a little deflation now and them can be good, once bitcoin become mainstream, we ll no longer be seeing the volatility we see now, because i guess you think bitcoin will keep skyrocketing in price to infinity, if you did study economics as you claim, you would no this is impossible and you should know well why bitcoin is still in rally, because more people are getting onboard, once bitcoin and other altcoins like dash and the rest gains market cap in trillions, then we ll see stability and then we will be able to appreciate what free market can bring to our society, my keypoint here is that free market will always autocorrect and stabilize things trust me

          • Dr. Bubó

            I understand your point, but you are wrong. Deflation would continue. Gold has been used for money for thousands of years BUT it was mined all the time and was not as deflatory as people think. When it was deflatory, like between 1929-1933, caused HUGE problems and FDR’s solution was inflation (devaluation of gold). But also had inflatory periods, like after Colombus returned from America.
            Bitcoins penetration is still less than 1%. Rally continues.
            And every asset is deflatory what is mined slower than the growth of the economy. Bitcoin’s problem is not really understood in the community.

  • RonchiNotDonkey

    This site is guilty of the same click bait headlines and scaremongering, in fact I even commented on one of the earlier articles. Run with the Rabbits and Hunt with the hounds.

  • I think is fun to predict the price of bitcoin, but the most important do not always believe the news. News like to make a sensational headline when something bad happens to increase the traffic.

  • I’m with you here. As Bitcoin price was falling, I was buying. All of the “clickbait” crap online just made me yawwwwnnn… Another day in the life and times of cryptocurrencies. How FUN! LOVING IT!

  • anthony

    hi all, i am a newbie to the mysterious world of crypto-currencies and how they work, this is completely different form share investing and is more complicated. I don’t understand alt-coins as they seem to be speculative and very volatile and hard to set-up wallets. Bitcoin i am more understanding and was easy to set-up using Cointree. I have done OK with my small investment in bitcoin and will buy more on price drops and fear . I like to invest when others are fearful, but cautious when everyone is buying.

  • Michelle Yun

    The advisers are not the payers.