Mark Dow, a hedge fund manager and former International Monetary Fund economist, has publicly announced that he has closed his BTC short position. Based on his blog, it appears that Dow likely entered the trade when BTC was trading at around $14,000.
Mark Down Closes Out BTC Short
Dow drew attention from the crypto community last year after posting an article on Dec. 24 titled “So You Want to Short Bitcoin? Here’s Your Road Map” in which he speculated that the bull trend may be over.
In response to questions asking Dow’s strategy regarding BTC moving forward, he expressed doubt that will “ever short it again,” adding that he presently has “absolutely zero interest in going long.”
Dow also indicated that he had already taken partial size off the position in two instances earlier this year.
‘People’s Imaginations’ Drove Last Year’s Bull Trend
Speaking to media, Dow discussed his decision to close the position, stating: “I’m done. I don’t want to try to ride this thing to zero. I don’t want to try to squeeze more out of the lemon. I don’t want to think about it. It seemed like the right time.”
On the subject of last year’s bull market, Dow asserted that a fear of missing out drove giddy sentiment among investors, “allow[ing] the bubble to be much larger and much more violent.”
“People buy into these assets because they believe the narrative, and you look at the asset prices to see if the narrative is weakening or changing. It’s not easy – you could be wrong, but that’s the sign you look for,” he said.
Dow Likely Shorted at $14,000 Area
In Dow’s December 2017 article he asserted his belief that “the speculative crypto fever ha[d] broken.” At the time of writing, BTC was trading for approximately $14,300 after bouncing from a local low of roughly $10,500 in the violent sell-off that ensued during the week following the establishment of BTC’s all-time high.
While Dow noted that BTC had “declined by 30% or more probably a dozen times since its inception, coming back stronger each time,” he pointed to the intensity of the final leg up to nearly $20,000 and the introduction of BTC futures as possible indicators that the speculative frenzy had peaked.
Dow asserted that “there is heavy overhead in the $15,000-$16,000 area, adding that “Going up into that area and then breaking down from it would be a logical trigger for a short.” He suggested that “If we close below 14,240, you can short it, betting that the unwind is not over,” however, emphasized the need to use stop orders in order to manage risk.
Do you think the current bear market has already posted its bottom? Share your thoughts in the comments section below!
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