According to the latest Gartner Hype Cycle report, Blockchain technology is just about at the Peak of Inflated Expectations. Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and related businesses like exchanges are further ahead in the Trough of Disillusionment.
Gartner has recently released its report Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies, 2016, which states that blockchain technology is at the peak of inflated expectations. The Connecticut-based firm is one of the leading data and research providers when it comes to information technology (IT). It provides research and advisory in regards to maturity, adoption, and real world application of new technologies.
The Hype Cycle explains that blockchain tech is 5 to 10 years away from reaching critical mass. This coincides with many other reports from the likes of Accenture and EY that also advise businesses to prepare for mainstream adoption. The Gartner Hype Cycle is a graphical presentation of emerging technologies passing through five phases.
The five phases include the Technology Trigger, which is an introduction to the innovation. The second Peak of Inflated Expectations phase is where blockchain technology is currently at. It also includes other promising technology such as smart robots and the smart home. But while this stage can produce success stories, it is also not uncommon to see a lot of hype result in vaporware and disappointment.
The third Trough of Disillusionment phase is where cryptocurrencies are currently at, according to the report. This phase is a big shake out period in which many that don’t produce begin to fail, leaving only the cream of the crop.
Last year, cryptocurrencies and associated exchanges were at the Peak of Inflated Expectations. In 2016, the technology has moved into a tougher phase where many companies will fall by the wayside. Brian Forde, Founding Director of Digital Currency Initiative at MIT Media Lab is pleased Bitcoin has passed the peak period and now rests in the Disillusionment phase. Forde explains:
From my perspective, we’ve hit the top of the peak of inflated expectations for bitcoin, and we’re now starting to slide down the trough of disillusionment which is a good thing because it means we’re moving closer to the slope of enlightenment.— I think this is healthy. There has been such an intense focus on the incredibly important bitcoin scalability debate that it ends up sucking all the air out of the room for other conversations. That said, the trough of disillusionment allows developers, startups and academics to focus on their code, companies and research with fewer distractions as they blaze the trail to the slope of enlightenment.
Blockchain & Crypto Will Be Mainstream in 5-10 Years
The next stages include the Slope of Enlightenment and the Plateau of Productivity. These two periods equal to significant real-world growth: mass adoption begins and the technology’s potential are realized. Some technologies currently in the Enlightenment and Productivity phases include virtual reality with augmented reality trailing not too far behind.
The Gartner Hype Cycle report for emerging technology believes it provides insight and cross-industry perspective to the latest innovations entering the world economy. It researches “over 2,000 technologies into a succinct set of must-know emerging technologies and trends that will have the single greatest impact on an organization’s strategic planning,” says Mike J. Walker, research director at Gartner. He adds:
This Hype Cycle specifically focuses on the set of technologies that is showing promise in delivering a high degree of competitive advantage over the next five to 10 years.
What do you think about the blockchain technology and cryptocurrencies placements in the Gartner Hype Cycle 2016? Let us know in the comments below.
Images courtesy of Gartner Inc., and Shutterstock
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